(Reasoned) Spring Fever In The Valley

Spring fever is out in full force in the Valley, and the contagion is cash. Lots of cash.

The last few weeks were filled with news of buyouts followed by, oh yes, more buyouts. Google nabbed DoubleClick; MySpace purchased Photobucket; Microsoft bought…well, lots of companies, really, not the least of which was aQuantive, which was dubbed an historic $6bn (historic because it’s the most Microsoft has every paid for an established entity) buyout for the software giant. The list goes on.

Now there’s lots and lots of talk about Yahoo!’s suspected/possible/probably purchase of Bebo, the world’s third-largest social network, for $1bn. And Google supposed interest in having Feedburner for itself. And speculation on Facebook’s purchase.

The most interesting thing about these new developments and developments-to-be (or not-to-be) is their surprising solidity. The investment world isn’t awash in fear and paranoia. Like they were a little less than a decade ago. Sure, there’s mention of big numbers and even record sums, but the waters, for the most part, remain quite calm. Why the heck isn’t anyone more freaked out about the goings on this season?

Because there’s no need to be. Sure, lots of money is changing hands, but the difference between ’99 and ’07 is that in the latter frame of history, the cash isn’t going to shops with nice signs and no substance.

Some hopes and dreams do linger in Bubble 2.0, as they damn well need to, but not so much that the folks/firms/businesses doling out the hay-bale-sized blocks of green have lost their heads. As preliminary as this assertion may be, the vast majority of the figures tossed about the planet today (in the tech world, that is) are right on the money. (Or at least near it.)

There’s some expectation in Silicon Valley (and everyplace else successful Internet ventures exist) that the party will come to a crashing (and crushing) halt, but I’m not so sure about that myself anymore. I will state for the record that I’m not sure what it is exactly that makes me think everything will be okay. It’s many things, really. But one thing is certain: the air just smells different.

Despite the disasters of 2000 and 2001, the Internet sprang back pretty quickly, and today it’s looking healthier than ever. Many things are happening on the Web that have many people excited, and that means genuine interest in online business and development will very likely exist for the long term. We’re bound to see ups and downs, as we all do on a daily basis. But because many things seems to be coming together at the same time, I can only see reason to forecast very bright and sunny days for the Web for years to come.