The Scobleizer Foresees A Subversion of Google Search In The Future

Posted by Paul Glazowski on August 27th, 2007

Are you familiar with Robert Scoble? Once a “tech evangelist” and uber-popular blogger (Scobleizer) backed by Redmond, he (along with his spouse) is now pulling strings at PodTech, a video podcast startup. He’s a big voice in the Valley. Lots of people listen when he speaks. Problem is, he can be kind of, well, irrational on occasion, and in the tech space, such a characteristic isn’t a very good one to have. Not good, at least, to showcase to a great big audience. Which the guy clearly has.

Scoble’s most recent irrational postulation, documented in a three-part series of videos, is one in which the evangelist claims Google, the Mountain View behemoth, will get surpassed, supplanted, or subverted (or perhaps even a combination of the three) by companies like Facebook, Mahalo, and TechMeme. Immediately, you want to question how exactly he can possibly (and seriously) think this, do you not? I know I do. So I will. And do feel free to leave your own take on the matter in the comments below.

Robert Scoble is betting that social search will rise, so much so that many, many people will feel enlightened enough by human-vetted webpage results that the cold-hearted code-based search technology Big GOOG relies on to continue on its quest for world domination will lose its luster and its impression of power and might. That loss will then presumably lead to Google’s fade, at which point it would watch helplessly from the side of the road as the “next gen” of search sites roar past, grinning from ear to ear.

I can’t help but chuckle at that. How ridiculous it would be for anyone - anyone with a decent supply of sense, anyhow - to think Google will be divested of its crown by entities like Facebook and Mahalo simply due to a lack of the human intervention or “supplication” in its search process. Cannot algorithms emulate trends and understand human preferences, writing styles, and questions? Cannot some well-engineered code tackle the realms of audible and visual media (aka, music and movies) well enough that the general population reliant on said code is able, in most every instance, to find what they seek?

Human beings are, of course, smarter than machines. Machines may arrive at solutions more quickly than humans, but in very particular, detailed circumstances, humans frequently “win out” over circuit-based artificial intelligence. That’s a given - for the moment, at least.

But just as most individuals consult Dewey (or whatever system is preferred by your local library) rather than venture to the mostly bookish folk at the Information Desk to find a desired volume, most individuals rely on mostly automated systems on the Web to search for things virtual (and even things physical, if we’re talking of things retail). Why? Because they work. Because they are good enough. They could be better, for sure, but as with everything, technologies evolve and do indeed get better. Yes, they evolve courtesy of us humans, but the humans working behind the scenes act more or less as editors, not as guides. As it should be. It’d be terribly inefficient to try to address the issue of search otherwise, particularly on the scale of, say, Google.

I’m not here to stand at Google’s side and claim any and all detractors as fools by default. I no doubt believe social search will have its place in the coming months and years. But if we’re talking big picture, algorithms clearly need to remain in place. They’ll get increasingly complex, but stay they will.

Perhaps the search space itself will expand and trend to a big-head/long-tail system, in which the behemoths remain, but unique companies with interesting approaches (yes, like Mahalo) to the delivery of search results gain more notable stature and subsist contentedly in niche markets of their own. That way, everyone kind of goes home happy. Except for the folks that bet on the tragic downfall of the big guys. Those guys will go home grumpy. Unless they’re right, in which case everything’ll be kosher, regardless of what the future presents.

Scoble may believe social search will lead to the Yahooification of The GOOG, but I very much doubt such a fate will befall the reigning king of search.

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